These 80 housing markets are seeing falling home prices

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National home prices rose +0.7% year-over-year between April 2024 and April 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index—a decelerated rate from the +4.4% year-over-year rate between April 2023 and April 2024.

And more metro area housing markets are seeing declines.

—> 31 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window.

—> 42 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window.

—> 60 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window.

—> 80 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window.

While 27% of the 300 largest housing markets are currently experiencing year-over-year home price declines, that share is gradually increasing as the supply-demand balance continues to shift directionally toward buyers in this affordability-constrained environment.

Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Louisiana—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels—are seeing modest home price corrections.

These year-over-year declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.1%); Tampa (-5.0%); San Antonio (-3.2%); Dallas (-3.0%); Phoenix (-2.8%); Orlando (-2.8%); Jacksonville, Florida (-2.7%); New Orleans (-2.4); Atlanta (-2.3%); Miami (-2.3%), Denver (-1.8%), and Houston (-1.4%).

The markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals.

Given the shift in active housing inventory and months of supply, along with the soft level of appreciation in more markets this spring, ResiClub expects the number of metro areas with year-over-year home price declines in the Zillow Home Value Index to continue ticking up in the coming months.

Note: This particular Zillow Home Value Index, includes single-family homes and condos. It reflects the change in the typical value for homes in the 35th to 65th percentile range.

While all the major national home price indices we track [see chart below] are showing a decelerated rate of year-over-year U.S. home price growth, it's worth noting that the Zillow Home Value Index (which we frequently cite) is currently the softest among the major indices.

A part of the reason why is the Zillow Home Value Index that ResiClub frequently cites (including above) includes both single-family and condos—which are very weak in Florida right now—whereas most of the major indices we cite are based on repeat sales of single-family homes only. We’re not just assuming. If you just look at single-family home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, they are up +1.6% year-over-year.

But that’s not the only reason. Another factor is that the Zillow Home Value Index tends to be a tad ahead of lagged repeat-sales indices, such as Case-Shiller.

Over the past week, ResiClub PRO members (paid tier) got these 3 additional housing research articles:

Zoomed out look at home prices across America's 50 largest metro area housing markets

Monthly home price analysis spanning over 800 metros and 3,000 counties

Housing foreclosures are almost back to pre-pandemic 2019 levels