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Goldman Sachs Vs. Moody's: Where they expect national home prices to go through 2027

Goldman Sachs believes that national home price growth will remain around its historical average, while Moody's expects a period of sideways movement.

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While most home price forecasters publish only annual or 12-month outlooks, both Goldman Sachs and Moody's provide multiyear forecasts. Given that Goldman Sachs updated their 2024-2027 outlook last week, ResiClub reached out to Moody's to obtain their latest multiyear forecast for U.S. home prices.

Goldman Sachs national home price outlook:

2024 —> +3.8%

2025 —> +4.4%

2026 —> +4.9%

2027 —> +4.9%

Moody’s national home price outlook:

2024 —> +1.5%

2025 —> +0.3%

2026 —> +0.9%

2027 —> +1.7%

Keep in mind that even if Goldman Sachs accurately predicts the national home price growth, there could still be regional home price corrections during that period. Similarly, if Moody's prediction is correct and national home prices essentially remain flat for a few years, there will likely be several regional areas where home prices decline.

Goldman Sachs’ take 🏠👇

“We expect housing demand to remain firm, reflecting supportive demographic trends and a healthy labor market. The combination of modestly higher supply growth and firm demand should result in only a modest increase in the homeowner vacancy rate (GS forecast 1.1% for 2025Q4 vs. 1.4% in 2019). Against the backdrop of a still-tight but easing housing market, we expect national home prices to rise 3.8% December-over-December this year.” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a report published last week.

Moody’s take 🏠👇

“We expect homes for sale to steadily increase as more existing homeowners need to sell for demographic reasons – death, divorce, children, job change – and lower mortgage rates help ease their interest rate lock. The lower rates will also support housing demand, but the increase in housing supply will be even more significant, weighing on house price gains,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told ResiClub on Tuesday.

Big picture: Goldman Sachs believes that national home price growth, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, will remain close to its historical annual average of +4.5% between 1988 and 2023. While Moody's expects national home prices to experience a period of sideways movement.

Later this week, ResiClub PRO members will receive an article detailing both Moody's and Zillow's metro-level home price forecasts for the next 12 months.

Are you a housing investor? Do you own a long-term or short-term rental property? 🏠

If so, you’re invited to participate in the ResiClub-Groundfloor Housing Investor Survey.

The survey results will be published later this month in ResiClub—and in other mainstream publications.

Nothing in this letter is investment advice. Please do your own research.