You are invited to participate in the TurboHome-ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey.
Anyone—homeowners, renters, and housing industry professionals alike—can take this particular ResiClub survey.
While softness—and even outright weakness—remains in parts of Florida’s housing market, the intensity of the downturn in Florida has eased somewhat in recent months.
While the ResiClub team is huge fans of looking at year-over-year shifts in home prices—especially when using an index that helps account for mix shift—the truth is that year-over-year changes are also slightly lagging.
One way to get ahead of year-over-year home price shifts is by looking at seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price shifts as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index.
When looking at seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price shifts across Florida metro and micro areas, you’ll see that over the past seven months the intensity of Florida’s home price correction has eased. Some Florida metros—in particular in the Florida Panhandle and parts of Northern Florida—are even back to seeing mildly positive seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price gains. And the places that are still seeing seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price declines, such as Punta Gorda and Cape Coral, are experiencing much smaller seasonally adjusted month-over-month declines than they were seven months ago.
Pulling from the ResiClub Terminal…
The chart below shows the seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price change between February 2026 and March 2026.
A year ago, there was much more red.
The chart below shows the seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price change between February 2025 and March 2025.
While Florida housing markets are far from “strong” right now, you can see in the table below that the intensity of the correction in Florida has been easing over the past seven months. The ResiClub team will continue to keep an eye on it.
Why is the intensity of the recalibration/correction easing in many Florida housing markets?
LEFT: Month-over-month home price shift from February 2025 to March 2025 in select core ZIP Codes across Tampa and St. Petersburg — RIGHT: Month-over-month home price shift from February 2026 to March 2026 in those same ZIP Codes.
As Florida home prices have softened—and, in some pockets of the Sunshine State, experienced material corrections—overvaluation has come down and fundamentals have been healing across many markets in the state. As that has occurred, coupled with some builders slowing spec construction, the correction in Florida has lost some momentum over the past year. Additionally, some sellers who aren’t in financial distress have seen enough declines and are attempting to wait out the weakness.
Many markets in the state—including Punta Gorda, where home prices spiked +70.1% between March 2020 and August 2022—need a period of some mean reversion. Fast-forward to the end of March 2026, and home prices in the Punta Gorda, FL metro area are down -23.9% since June 2022—and now home prices in that market are up just +29.4% above March 2020 levels.
Why did Florida have more downside risk this cycle?
Florida’s particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom is the key reason for its post-boom downside pricing vulnerability. While U.S. home prices rose +41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged +51% over the same period—leaving some parts of the state significantly overvalued. Only, it takes a large enough shift in the supply-demand equilibrium for that vulnerability to manifest into falling prices. Of course, over the past three years, 5 factors have come together to create a supply-demand equilibrium shift large enough to reveal some of that downside risk and push certain pockets of Florida into post-Pandemic Housing Boom corrections.
The Pandemic Housing Boom’s migration surge to Florida has fizzled out. Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +23K in 2025, compared to +314K in 2022. Without that larger influx of deep-pocketed buyers from up North, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes.
Surfside condo fallout. Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings.
Hurricane Ian spurred a greater SWFL softening. Markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, saw thousands of damaged homes, and the subsequent need for renovations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage, making Ian the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. That event helped create additional softening in SWFL.
Supply elasticity. Unlike many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, Florida has a higher level of homebuilding, build-to-rent, multifamily construction. As that new supply entered the market in the post-Pandemic Housing Boom affordability-strained environment, builders used bigger affordability adjustments—such as mortgage rate buydowns and rental incentives—where needed to move it. That helped cool the Florida resale market further by drawing buyers who might have otherwise purchased existing homes toward new construction. As a result, this put additional upward pressure on Florida’s resale inventory after the Pandemic Housing Boom ended.
Home insurance shocks. Over the past three years, the median annual U.S. home insurance premium has jumped around 30%, but Florida homeowners have been hit even harder. The surge in Florida home insurance rates is partly driven by rising replacement costs—home prices and construction costs soared during the boom—and partly by increased hurricane risks and insurance payouts. Florida's sharp rise in insurance costs, combined with one of the biggest home price increases during the Pandemic Housing Boom, has led to one of the biggest housing affordability deteriorations.
Where in Florida can homebuyers find the biggest home price declines from peak?
In the ResiClub Terminal, users can access a data cut for “home price shift since the 2022 peak” down to the ZIP Code level. Looking through that data cut, you’ll see that Southwest Florida still has the most ZIP Codes where home prices are at least -15% below their 2022 peak. Some homes across Southwest Florida—particularly condos or homes built near new-home developments—have seen $100,000 declines in value since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out.
Firms that would like a demo of the ResiClub Terminal, should email [email protected]
A look at D.R. Horton’s fiscal Q2 gross margins
ResiClub PRO members can read our report looking at our top 6 thoughts on D.R. Horton’s latest earnings here.
