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A half-century of data shows a 1.40-point average annual mortgage-rate range
According to a ResiClub analysis, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged a 1.40-percentage-point annual range since 1972. In 2025, the range was 0.87 points.
Lance Lambert
December 10, 2025
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Even "normal years" have a lot of mortgage rate volatility
A new ResiClub analysis of Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage-rate dataset finds that since 1972, the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.40 percentage points. If you move the goalpost to just this century—since 2001—the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 1.08 percentage points.
That’s the typical gap between the lowest weekly reading and the highest weekly reading in a given year. And it’s a reminder that even in years with relatively low economic volatility, mortgage rates still tend to move around—often enough to materially shift monthly payments and buying power.
For example, on a $400,000 mortgage, a 6.00% fixed rate yields a monthly principal and interest payment of about $2,398. At 7.40%—a 1.40-percentage-point jump—the payment rises to roughly $2,769. That 1.40-point gap mirrors the long-run average annual range in mortgage rates, and it translates into a $371 monthly payment difference.
Big swing years
Some years produce especially wide bands. Take 2022, when the market endured the sharpest rate shock in four decades. The 30-year mortgage rate swung 3.86 percentage points from its low of 3.22% to its high of 7.08%. That type of swing can dramatically change the calculus for buyers, sellers, builders, and lenders—sometimes multiple times within the same calendar year.
And even “quiet” years still move
Other years—like 2025—see tighter ranges. So far in 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has ranged just 0.87 percentage points, from a low of 6.17% to a high of 7.04%. A smaller band doesn’t mean the swings are insignificant. For households on the margin of affordability, even a half-point move can meaningfully shift qualification levels, lock-timing decisions, and real-time housing demand.
Why this matters heading into 2026 forecast season
As you see newly published 2026 mortgage-rate forecasts hitting the wires, it’s important to remember: those projections usually represent the average 30-year mortgage rate for the year or for Q4—not the highs or lows. Even if 2026 turns out to be a calmer year, history tells us there will likely be multiple rate swings of meaningful size—moves that will filter directly into monthly payments and potentially drive intra-year shifts in builder incentives.
Even for the smartest minds in finance, choosing when to wait and when to lock rates is always a bit of a gamble—and these annual ranges are exactly why.
As expected, the FOMC announced today a cut of 25 bps to the short-term Fed rate.
"I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, the fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves… monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis."