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- National averages mask regional extremes—especially between lower and upper tiers
National averages mask regional extremes—especially between lower and upper tiers
Some Southern homebuilders targeting entry-level buyers are encountering weaker demand than they expected.
Lance Lambert
October 10, 2025
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Last week, the following tweet caught my attention:
“Speaking with a home builder last night (Chattanooga, TN): [There’s currently] high-demand in the low-end of the market (<$300k), as people are looking to upgrade from renting. Can't build enough [of that]. Almost no demand in [the] middle market ($300k-700k), as it tends to be the upgrade market and the buyers are locked in. Almost nothing is moving there. Luxury market ($700k+ very liquid, mostly cash buyers).”
While Fuller’s narrative is true in some pockets of the country—it isn’t the case everywhere. According to my reporting and research there’s a lot of variation in terms of (upper vs. middle vs. lower) right now.
For instance, several Southeast homebuilders have told me they’ve seen greater softening in the entry-level segment over the past year—that’s also the very segment many builders have been chasing, with some going so far as to roll out smaller builds to entice priced-out homebuyers—while the higher tier has held up better.
This week, ResiClub PRO members gained access to the ResiClub Terminal—one of its features is analysis for lower-tier (5th to 35th percentile), middle-tier (35th to 65th percentile), and upper-tier (65th to 95th percentile) homes by market. With just a few clicks, ResiClub PRO members can see that the lower end of the market has shown greater weakness over the past year across the Southeast.
Lower-tier home price year-over-year change 👇
Upper-tier home price year-over-year change👇
Within the ResiClub Terminal, ResiClub PRO members can click on individual markets to see this data down to a local level. For example…
Lower-tier home prices are down -7.5% year-over-year in DeKalb County, Georgia.
Upper-tier home prices are down -0.9% year-over-year in DeKalb County, Georgia.
When you zoom out and look at this on a nationally aggregated basis, the upper-tier, middle-tier, and lower-tier are all pretty close:
Upper-tier: -0.1%
Middle-tier: +0.2%
Lower-tier: +0.6%
The fact that current housing market dynamics by price tier are nearly identical on a nationally aggregated basis—despite significant underlying variation—is a reminder that it’s important for housing stakeholders to have accurate, localized information.
Bonus chart: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Refinance Index
Over the past few months, we’ve been passing through a small “refi boomlet.”
