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Net domestic migration: Which states are gaining—and losing—Americans

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau published their net domestic migration data for 2025.

Keep in mind that this metric—net domestic migration—is NOT the same as total population change. It does not include births, deaths, or international migration (we’ll cover those in separate articles). Instead, net domestic migration is calculated as the difference between the number of Americans moving into a given state (in-migration) and the number leaving that state (out-migration) over a specific period.

These 5 states saw the MOST POSITIVE net domestic migration between July 2024 and July 2025:

1. North Carolina —> +84,064

2. Texas —> +67,299 

3. South Carolina —> +66,622 

4. Tennessee —> +42,389

5. Arizona —> +31,107

These 5 states saw the MOST NEGATIVE net domestic migration between July 2024 and July 2025:

1. California —> -229,077

2. New York —> -137,586

3. Illinois —> -40,017

4. New Jersey —> -37,428 

5. Massachusetts —> -33,340

To make a more apples-to-apples comparison, ResiClub takes the Census data and calculates net domestic migration on a per-capita basis—measured as net domestic migration per 1,000 state residents. Viewed this way, South Carolina, Idaho, and North Carolina emerge as the top destinations for net domestic migration.

Note: The annual data published by Census is from July to July (e.g., 2025 = shift from July 2024 to July 2025) rather than exact calendar year net domestic migration.

Click here to view an interactive of the map below

While Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida continue to see positive net migration, it’s FAR less unbound migration than those states saw during the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom.

LEFT: Per capita net domestic migration shift from July 2021 to July 2022

RIGHT: Per capita net domestic migration shift from July 2024 to July 2025

Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +23K in 2025, compared to +314K in 2022, while Texas saw net domestic migration of +67K in 2025, compared to +222K in 2022.

Click here to view an interactive version of the sortable table below

During the Pandemic Housing Boom, the surge in net domestic migration into states like Texas and Florida—with many newcomers arriving with incomes and wealth that exceeded those of many local residents—was one of the key reasons home prices overheated even harder in housing markets such as Austin, Tampa, and Cape Coral. On the flip side, over the past few years as the housing market has moved through a cyclical cooling phase, the deceleration in net domestic migration across many Texas and Florida markets has contributed to larger demand shocks, and greater upticks in active inventory and weaker home price dynamics—with some pockets of both states even experiencing outright price corrections. That’s normal: cyclical cooling tends to hit high-growth markets harder on the downside.

Looking ahead, Texas and Florida will continue to be among the top destinations for domestic movers. They’re simply moving through a softer window right now, in part because of the migration pull-forward that occurred in 2021–2022 (many of those households likely would have moved in 2023–2025 anyway), and because switching costs remain exceptionally high in the current housing cycle. For example, some homeowners in states like Illinois who might have otherwise sold in 2023-2026 and relocated to Florida are staying put, as taking on a materially higher mortgage rate/monthly payment is simply too difficult to justify right now. That churn will slowly unlock overtime.

Over the past week, ResiClub members got these 3 additional housing research articles:

ResiClub PRO's 2026 housing forecast roundup of all our roundups

5 takeaways from D.R. Horton’s earnings: What America’s largest homebuilder is saying about housing

Housing footprints of America’s 21 largest homebuilders, shown with interactive maps

Nationally aggregated single-family home prices

Today, we learned that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, fell -0.1% month-over-month from the October 2025 reading to the November 2025 reading. Seasonally, that decline is fairly normal for that time of year—which is at the tail end of the typical seasonal softening window.

• Year-over-year: +1.4%

• Since 2022’s peak: +6.5%

• Since March 2020: +52.5%

Note: The table below is NOT seasonally adjusted.

Top ad disclosure, provided by Lennar:

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