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  • Texas is officially back above pre-pandemic inventory levels—these states are close behind

Texas is officially back above pre-pandemic inventory levels—these states are close behind

On Tuesday, ResiClub analyzed May inventory data from Realtor.com.

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The survey results will be published later this month in ResiClub—and in other mainstream publications.

When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it's important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate potential future pricing weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is heating up.

Given the absence of an excessive amount of existing inventory on the market, it makes sense that spiked mortgage rates and strained affordability haven't resulted in more regional home price corrections.

We are starting to see national active listings rise (+35% between May 2023 and May 2024); however, we’re still well below pre-pandemic levels (-33% below May 2019).*

May inventory/active listings** total, according to Realtor.com:

May 2017: 1,253,854 📉 

May 2018: 1,156,910 📉 

May 2019: 1,180,920 📉 

May 2020: 928,370 📉 

May 2021: 447,662 📉 

May 2022: 479,462 📈 

May 2023: 582,441 📈 

May 2024: 787,722 📈

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

Regionally speaking, the year-over-year state shift varies a lot.

In Nevada, active listings are down -25% on a year-over-year basis as markets like Reno and Las Vegas tightened up following a brief home price correction in the second half of 2022.

Meanwhile, active listings are up +70% in Florida on a year-over-year basis.

The biggest Florida inventory increase is concentrated in sections of Southwest Florida. In particular, in markets like Cape Coral and Fort Myers, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022. This combination of increased housing supply for sale—the damaged homes—coupled with strained demand—the result of spiked home prices, spiked mortgage rates, higher insurance premiums, and higher HOAs—has translated into market softening across much of Southwest Florida. In addition, Florida’s coastal condo market is dealing with the after effects of regulation passed following the Surfside condo collapse in 2021.

Why the inventory rise across most of the Sun Belt?

As new supply becomes available in Southwest and Southeast markets, and builders use affordability adjustments like buydowns to move it, it has put the existing market at a disadvantage. As resale inventory sits a little longer, inventory builds.

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

Texas is back above pre-pandemic inventory levels. And states like Florida, Arizona, and Idaho are almost there too.

However, most of the country still remains below pre-pandemic inventory/months of supply.

Much of the Midwest/Northeast, in particular, remains very tight.

Big picture: We're observing some softening in many housing markets as higher mortgage rates temper the fervor of a market that was unsustainably hot during the Pandemic Housing Boom; however, home prices in many housing markets are still rising.

* Active listings (i.e. what ResiClub often calls “inventory”) = “The count of active listings within the specified geography during the specified month. The active listing count tracks the number of for sale properties on the market, excluding pending listings where a pending status is available. This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month” according to Realtor.com.

For today’s article, we’re looking at the latest national inventory data from Realtor.com.

Later this week, ResiClub PRO members will receive an article showcasing inventory trends down to the local level. It will include several interactive maps and charts, covering over 800 metros and 3,000 counties.