ResiClub is currently fielding three industry surveys. If you’re in one of these groups, we’d love your participation. The results will be published in ResiClub and across some traditional media outlets.

Are you a real estate agent or a team leader at a residential brokerage? If so, you’re invited to participate in the 2026 Cotality–ResiClub Brokerage Survey.

Are you a home flipper? Is fix and flip part of your real estate investment strategy? If yes, we’re inviting you to participate in the Q1 2026 LendingOne-ResiClub Fix and Flip Survey. 🏠🛠️

Are you a single-family rental (SFR) owner/operator/manager or a build-to-rent (BTR) owner/operator/developer? Or do you work on the institutional side of the housing market? If so, we’re inviting you to participate in the Roofstock–ResiClub BTR and SFR Housing Survey.

Zillow revises its home price forecast across over 400 housing markets—see the map

Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will rise +0.9% between January 2026 and January 2027. 

That’s a mild downward revision from its 12-month forecast published last month (+2.1%).

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.2% year-over-year. Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+0.9%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace. As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. income growth (currently up +3.6%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as the Pandemic Housing Boom’s housing demand pull ahead and overheating gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability should also gradually improve.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either. They’re calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the next 12 months?

Click here for an interactive version of Zillow’s forecast

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price increase between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Rockford, IL → +5.4% 

2. Atlantic City, NJ → +4.8% 

3. Syracuse, NY → +4.4% 

4. Knoxville, TN → +4.3% 

5. Hartford, CT → +4.1% 

6. Norwich, CT → +4.1% 

7. Green Bay, WI → +4.0% 

8. Morristown, TN → +4.0% 

9. Rochester, NY → +3.9% 

10. New Haven, CT → +3.9% 

11. Concord, NH → +3.9% 

12. Pottsville, PA → +3.9% 

13. Appleton, WI → +3.8% 

14. Wausau, WI → +3.8% 

15. Janesville, WI → +3.7%

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price decline between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Houma, LA → -6.5% 

2. Lake Charles, LA → -5.6% 

3. New Orleans, LA → -4.1% 

4. Lafayette, LA → -3.0% 

5. Alexandria, LA → -3.0% 

6. Austin, TX → -2.9% 

7. Chico, CA  → -2.9% 

8. Shreveport, LA → -2.8% 

9. Beaumont, TX → -2.7% 

10. San Antonio, TX  → -2.0% 

11. Boulder, CO → -2.0% 

12. Punta Gorda, FL -2.0% 

13. Denver, CO → -1.9% 

14. Corpus Christi, TX → -1.8% 

15. Texarkana, TX → -1.8%

Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price change looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market softness over the past year.

With mortgage rates down around 200 bps from their cycle high in October 2023, home prices falling in some markets, and incomes continuing to tick up (at least faster than U.S. home prices), housing affordability is a bit less strained heading into spring 2026 than it was heading into spring 2024 and spring 2025.

Indeed, a new Zillow analysis shows a median-income U.S. household can now afford a $331,483 home—an improvement of $30,302 since last year.

“In addition to improved affordability, that also reflects the continued inventory recovery, with 6% more homes on the market in January than a year earlier. The nearly 447,000 homes a median-income household could afford today represent 40.3% of listings—up from 34.8% a year ago,” writes Zillow economist Kara Ng. “In markets where home values have fallen, buyers’ dollars stretch even further in real terms with today’s lower mortgage rates.”

Giant single-family landlord Invitation Homes' earnings point to clear softness in the rental market

Invitation Homes’ renewal rent growth remains positive at +4.2% YoY, but new lease rent growth is negative (-4.1% YoY), a sign that pricing power on new move-ins is soft.

It’s also important to view this through a cyclical lens. During the Pandemic Housing Boom, new lease rents accelerated much faster than renewal rents, as landlords were able to aggressively reset pricing on turnover. Renewals, by contrast, tend to adjust more gradually. What we’re seeing now is partly a reversal of that dynamic: renewal growth is benefiting from some lagged catch-up, while new leases—having risen too far, too fast in the Pandemic Housing Boom—are now giving back some ground during this cyclical cooldown window.

When combining renewals and new leases, Invitation Homes’ blended year-over-year rent shift came in at +1.8%. Renewals account for about 75% of their total lease book.

ResiClub members can read our latest ResiClub PRO report on Invitation Homes here.