Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift -0.1% between April 2026 and April 2027.
That’s a small downward revision from its 12-month national forecast published in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month national forecast published in March (+0.5%).
Nationally aggregated home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.7% year-over-year (historically speaking, that’s a soft environment). Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace. As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. wage growth (currently up +3.6%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as the Pandemic Housing Boom’s housing demand pull ahead and overheating gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability in the purchase market should also continue to gradually improve.
Zillow’s forecast calls for a soft nationally aggregated housing market over the next 12 months, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.
What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the next 12 months?
Click here for an interactive version of Zillow’s forecast
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price increase between April 2026 and April 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:
Syracuse, NY → +4.8%
Rockford, IL → +4.5%
Atlantic City, NJ → +4.1%
Utica, NY → +4.0%
Rochester, NY → +3.9%
Binghamton, NY → +3.6%
Pottsville, PA → +3.3%
Knoxville, TN→ +3.2%
Norwich, CT → +3.2%
Erie, PA → +3.1%
Morristown, TN → +3.1%
Janesville, WI → +3.0%
Buffalo, NY → +2.9%
Youngstown, OH → +2.9%
Kingston, NY → +2.9%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price decline between April 2026 and April 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:
Houma, LA → -6.7%
Lake Charles, LA → -5.8%
Austin, TX → -5.4%
New Orleans, LA → -4.4%
Alexandria, LA → -4.1%
Chico, CA → -3.5%
Vallejo, CA → -3.4%
Beaumont, TX → -3.4%
Lafayette, LA → -3.3%
Punta Gorda, FL → -3.2%
San Francisco, CA → -3.1%
Santa Rosa, CA → -3.0%
Denver, CO → -2.8%
San Antonio, TX → -2.8%
Shreveport, LA → -2.8%
My quick take: Based on my own analysis, I believe Zillow is too bearish on the New Orleans metro area housing market—which is showing signs of mild tightening after passing through a correction—and also too bearish on pockets of the Bay Area—especially San Francisco proper—which has benefited from AI boom spillover (although pockets of Oakland remain soft).
The Bay Area screenshot below is pulled from the ResiClub Terminal. Firms that would like a demo of the ResiClub Terminal, should email [email protected]
Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price change looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market softness over the past year.
Click here for an interactive version of the map below
Over the past week, ResiClub PRO members got these 3 additional housing research pieces:
