These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices

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National home prices rose +0.5% year-over-year between May 2024 and May 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index reading published last week—a decelerated rate from the +3.9% year-over-year rate between May 2023 and May 2024.

And more metro area housing markets are seeing declines.

—> 31 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window.

—> 42 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window.

—> 60 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window.

—> 80 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window.

—> 96 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 32% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window.

While 32% of the 300 largest housing markets are currently experiencing year-over-year home price declines, that share is gradually increasing as the supply-demand balance continues to shift directionally toward buyers in this affordability-constrained/post-housing boom environment.

Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Louisiana—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels—are seeing modest home price corrections.

Year-over-year home value declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.5%); Tampa (-5.4%); Dallas (-3.4%); Phoenix (-3.4%); San Antonio (-3.3%); Orlando (-3.2%); Miami (-3.2%); Jacksonville, Florida (-3.0%); Atlanta (-2.7%); San Francisco (-2.5%); Denver (-2.4%); New Orleans (-2.3%); San Diego (-1.9%); Raleigh (-1.8%); Houston (-1.5%); Sacramento (-1.4%); Charlotte (-0.9%); Memphis (-0.9%); Riverside (-0.8%); Portland (-0.5%); Birmingham (-0.3%); and Seattle (-0.1%).

Click here for an interactive version of the chart below

The markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals.

Given the shift in active housing inventory and months of supply, along with the soft level of appreciation in more markets this spring, ResiClub expects the number of metro areas with year-over-year home price declines in the Zillow Home Value Index to continue ticking up in the coming months.

In the coming months, ResiClub expects U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index (currently up +0.4% year-over-year), to turn slightly negative on a year-over-year basis. Historically, the Zillow Home Value Index tends to directionally lead lagged repeat-sales indices, such as the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Freddie Mac House Price Index.

That said, the headline Zillow Home Value Index is showing additional softness right now because it includes both single-family homes and condos—condos have underperformed recently. When looking at the index’s reading for just U.S. single-family homes, U.S. home values are currently up +1.0% year-over-year.

Over the past week, ResiClub PRO members (paid tier) got these 3 additional housing research articles:

The mechanics behind mortgage rates—and the scenarios that could lower them

Monthly home price analysis spanning over 800 metros and 3,000 counties

A goldmine of homebuilder data just dropped—here are ResiClub’s 4 big takeaways

Today, the National Association of Realtors published its May report for U.S. existing homes. The main gist? U.S. existing home sales still remain constrained.

Existing home sales, by May

May 2017 -> 555K

May 2018 -> 535K

May 2019 -> 542K

May 2020 -> 372K (COVID lockdowns)

May 2021 -> 528K

May 2022 -> 499K

May 2023 -> 408K

May 2024 -> 405K

May 2025 -> 389K