While forecasts for long-term yields—including mortgage rates—shouldn’t be taken as guaranteed given nailing them also takes getting so much right about the underlying U.S. economy, it’s still worth observing where economic models expect long-term rates to shift next. And right now economists currently do not expect a significant short-term decline in mortgage rates unless something material shifts in the economy (e.g., a spike in the unemployment rate).
Fannie Mae’s latest forecast projects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.2% in Q4 2027. Wells Fargo’s latest outlook similarly sees the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.2% in Q4 2027.
Of the forecasters, the Mortgage Bankers Association is the highest. In its latest forecast commentary, published in May 2026, the firm’s economists wrote that “Treasury yields and mortgage rates will stay higher for longer.” The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.5% in Q4 2027.
That outlook isn’t really surprising…
Back in late 2025, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association were already signaling that most of the easy mortgage-rate relief was likely already realized unless the economy weakened more materially.
Since then, mortgage rates have largely remained within the same general range, ticking up somewhat from their early-spring low following inflation concerns around oil prices.
As of the week ending June 4, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.48%.
Keep in mind that even if these forecasts come fairly close to reality, weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate readings could still swing above or below the quarterly projected averages.
After all, a ResiClub analysis of Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate dataset finds that since 1972, the average annual range in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been 1.40 percentage points. Narrowing the window to this century (since 2001), the average annual range has been 1.08 percentage points. In 2025, the spread between the year's highest and lowest weekly readings was 0.87 percentage points (87 basis points).
Over the past week, ResiClub PRO members got these 3 additional housing research articles:
