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Two bits of news before we get into today’s ResiClub article:

Based on our analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, nationally aggregated U.S. home prices are up +1.1% year-over-year between July 2025 and July 2026. That year-over-year pace is up a tad from this time last year—back in July 2025, when the national year-over-year home price growth rate was +0.2%. And it’s up slightly from the recent year-over-year low of -0.01% in August 2025.

In much of 2024 and the first half of 2025, there was a notable increase in the number of housing markets slipping into year-over-year price declines as the supply–demand equilibrium (as measured by inventory) shifted more quickly toward homebuyers. Over the past 12 months, however, the list of declining markets has begun to stabilize and inventory growth has also decelerated.

Back in fall 2025, ResiClub told readers that we expected the count of the number of markets with year-over-year price declines to gradually decrease a little in the first half of 2026. That’s exactly what we’ve seen. It’s still very much a soft nationally aggregated housing market—but the nationally aggregated burst of softening has let up.

Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip—are seeing either material corrections, modest home price pullbacks, or simply flat pricing.

Click here for an interactive version of the chart below

Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions or the Mountain West. Many of these areas saw even greater price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. That Sun Belt softening was further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. As a result, some buyers who might have previously opted for existing homes are instead choosing new construction with more attractive deals—which added further upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years.

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

Of course, while 64 of the nation’s 300 largest metro area housing markets are seeing year-over-year home price declines, another 236 are seeing year-over-year home price increases.

Where are home prices still up year-over-year basis? See the map below

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

Below is a historical chart showing the year-over-year change in home prices across the 50 largest metro housing markets, with the yellow line representing the national aggregate, dating back to 2000.

While the “range” [see chart above] between the strongest and weakest metro area housing markets right now is fairly normal historically speaking, the “bifurcation” (i.e., direction) itself—the share of markets with rising home prices versus those with falling prices—is wider than normal, given that national appreciation has stabilized into a softer market with growth barely above +0.0%. And the longer some markets remain in the “rising” camp while others stay in the “falling” camp, the wider the gulf can become between the relatively more resilient markets and the weaker ones. For example, home prices in the Hartford, CT metro area are now +28.7% above their 2022 peak, while home prices in the Austin, TX metro area sit -27.2% below their 2022 peak. Some of that “bifurcation” boils down to mean reversion, with many of the outright home price declines occurring in markets that overheated further during the Pandemic Housing Boom.

Note: For the historical chart below, we analyzed the 200 largest markets rather than the 300 used above, as some markets ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data going back to 2000. When weighted by population (not visualized), the housing market appears slightly weaker than the chart below suggests—which aligns with the fact that, among just the 50 largest housing markets, 21 (42%) are currently posting negative year-over-year price growth, and nationally aggregated home prices are up just +1.1% year-over-year using the Zillow Home Value Index.

Over the past week, ResiClub members (paid tiers) got these 3 additional housing research articles:

Froth is blowing off in Texas housing markets—and it's slowly changing the risk picture

A data look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's push to add mortgage-backed securities and drive spreads lower

12 of the 15 major homebuilders tracked by ResiClub are seeing year-over-year margin compression