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Where home prices are rising a tad YoY—and where they’re falling YoY
Based on ResiClub’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, nationally aggregated U.S. home prices are up +1.0% year-over-year between September 2025 and September 2026. That’s a month-over-month deceleration from the +1.3% YoY shift between August 2025 to August 2026.
After contracting over the past year, the number of America’s major regional housing markets seeing year-over-year declines is rising again, as the already soft national housing market sees another burst of softening amid the recent runup in long-term yields and mortgage rates.
—> 54 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 18% of markets) had a falling year-over-year home price reading in the August 2025 to August 2026 window.
—> 66 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 22% of markets) had a falling year-over-year home price reading in the September 2025 to September 2026 window.
Home prices are still climbing a tad year-over-year in pockets where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as certain areas in the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, Washington and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip—are seeing either material corrections, modest home price pullbacks, or simply flat pricing.
Looking ahead, the big question is how much of a burst of softening the nationally aggregated housing market will see, now that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped back above 7.00% amid an already strained affordability environment and a post-boom cyclical cooling period. To keep an eye on it, ResiClub recommends closely monitoring local active inventory over the next several months.
Click here for an interactive version of the chart below
Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions or the Mountain West. Many of these areas saw even greater price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. That Sun Belt softening was further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. As a result, some buyers who might have previously opted for existing homes are instead choosing new construction with more attractive deals—which added further upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years.
Click here to view an interactive version of the map below
Of course, while 66 of the nation’s 300 largest metro-area housing markets are seeing year-over-year home price declines, another 234 are seeing year-over-year home price increases. However, most of the places posting “nominal gains” are seeing gains below income growth and consumer price growth, which economists call “real” (inflation-adjusted) home price declines.
Where are home prices still up year-over-year basis? See the map below
Click here to view an interactive version of the map below
Below is a historical chart showing the year-over-year change in home prices across the 50 largest metro housing markets, with the yellow line representing the national aggregate, dating back to 2000.
While the “range” [see chart above] between the strongest and weakest metro area housing markets right now is fairly normal historically speaking, the “bifurcation” (i.e., direction) itself—the share of markets with rising home prices versus those with falling prices—is wider than normal, given that national appreciation is in a softer market with growth barely above +0.0%. And the longer some markets remain in the “rising” camp while others stay in the “falling” camp, the wider the gulf can become between the relatively more resilient markets and the weaker ones. For example, home prices in the Hartford, CT metro area are now +28.6% above their 2022 peak, while home prices in the Austin, TX metro area sit -28.1% below their 2022 peak. Some of that “bifurcation” boils down to mean reversion, with many of the outright home price declines occurring in markets that overheated further during the Pandemic Housing Boom.
Note: For the historical chart below, we analyzed the 200 largest markets rather than the 300 used above, as some markets ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data going back to 2000. When weighted by population (not visualized), the housing market appears slightly weaker than the chart below suggests—which aligns with the fact that, among just the 50 largest housing markets, 17 (34%) are currently posting negative year-over-year price growth, and nationally aggregated home prices are up just +1.0% year-over-year using the Zillow Home Value Index.
