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Florida’s housing market corrections continue to lose intensity—see the data across the state
While softness—and even outright weakness—remains in parts of Florida’s housing market, the intensity of the correction and recalibration process there has been waning throughout 2026, as ResiClub has been covering. And some homebuilders who've already made aggressive affordability adjustments—in particular at the higher end of the market—have reported this year that they've "found the market" in many of their Florida communities.
The gray dot below shows the year-over-year shift in SINGLE-FAMILY home prices in Florida metro areas between July 2024 to July 2025, while the black dot shows the year-over-year shift in single-family home prices between July 2025 to July 2026.
The gray dot below shows the year-over-year shift in CONDO home prices in Florida metro areas between July 2024 to July 2025, while the black dot shows the year-over-year shift in single-family home prices between July 2025 to July 2026.
As we covered back in April 2025, the ResiClub team is huge fans of looking at year-over-year shifts in home prices—especially when using an index that helps account for mix shift. The truth is that year-over-year changes are also slightly lagging.
One way to get ahead of year-over-year home price shifts is by looking at seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price shifts as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index.
When looking at seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price shifts across Florida metro and micro areas, you’ll see that over the past year the intensity of Florida’s home price correction has eased. Some Florida metros—in particular in the Florida Panhandle and parts of Northern Florida—are even back to seeing mildly positive seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price gains. And the places that are still seeing seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price declines, such as Punta Gorda and Cape Coral, are experiencing much smaller seasonally adjusted month-over-month declines than they were seven months ago.
The seasonally adjusted data suggest that year-over-year figures will continue to firm up mildly in the coming months across most Florida markets. In particular, Punta Gorda—which has been passing through a material correction since 2022—is poised for a firming in year-over-year home prices.
Why is the intensity of the recalibration/correction easing in many Florida housing markets?
LEFT: Home price shift from July 2024 to July 2025; RIGHT: Home price shift from July 2025 to July 2026
As Florida home prices have softened—and, in some pockets of the Sunshine State, experienced material corrections—froth and overvaluation has come down and fundamentals have been healing across many markets in the Florida. As that has occurred, coupled with some builders slowing spec construction, the correction in Florida has lost some momentum over the past year. Additionally, some sellers who aren’t in financial distress have seen enough declines and are attempting to wait out the weakness. As ResiClub covered in the second half of 2026, the surge in active inventory for sale there has stalled out, and inventory is now down somewhat year-over-year in most Florida markets.
Many markets in the state—including Punta Gorda, where home prices spiked +70.1% between March 2020 and August 2022—needed a period of some mean reversion. Fast-forward to the end of July 2026, and home prices in the Punta Gorda, FL metro area are down -24.5% since June 2022—and now home prices in that market are up just +29.7% above March 2020 levels.
Why did Florida have more downside risk this cycle?
Florida’s particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom was the key reason for its post-boom downside pricing vulnerability. While U.S. home prices rose +41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged +51% over the same period—leaving some parts of the state significantly overvalued. Only, it takes a large enough shift in the supply-demand equilibrium for that vulnerability to manifest into falling prices. Of course, after the boom ended, 5 factors came together to create a supply-demand equilibrium shift large enough to reveal some of that downside risk and push certain pockets of Florida into post-Pandemic Housing Boom corrections.
The Pandemic Housing Boom’s migration surge to Florida fizzled out. Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +23K in 2025, compared to +314K in 2022. Without that larger influx of deep-pocketed buyers from up North, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes.
Surfside condo fallout. Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. Following Surfside, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also tightened condo underwriting: stricter reserve requirements, mandatory. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings.
Hurricane Ian spurred a greater SWFL softening. Markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, saw thousands of damaged homes, and the subsequent need for renovations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage, making Ian the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. That event helped create additional softening in SWFL.
Supply elasticity. Unlike many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, Florida has a higher level of homebuilding, build-to-rent, multifamily construction. As that new supply entered the market in the post-Pandemic Housing Boom affordability-strained environment, builders used bigger affordability adjustments—such as mortgage rate buydowns and rental incentives—where needed to move it. That helped cool the Florida resale market further by drawing buyers who might have otherwise purchased existing homes toward new construction. As a result, this put additional upward pressure on Florida’s resale inventory after the Pandemic Housing Boom ended.
Home insurance shocks. In the three years following the boom, the median annual U.S. home insurance premium has jumped around 30%, but Florida homeowners have been hit even harder. The surge in Florida home insurance rates is partly driven by rising replacement costs—home prices and construction costs soared during the boom—and partly by increased hurricane risks and insurance payouts. Florida's sharp rise in insurance costs, combined with one of the biggest home price increases during the Pandemic Housing Boom, has led to one of the biggest housing affordability deteriorations.
Where in Florida can homebuyers/investors find the biggest home price declines from peak?
In the ResiClub Terminal, users can access a data cut for “home price shift since the 2022 peak” down to the ZIP Code level. Looking through that data cut, you’ll see that Southwest Florida still has the most ZIP Codes where home prices are at least -15% below their 2022 peak. Some homes across Southwest Florida—particularly condos or homes built near new-home developments—have seen $50,000, $75,000, and $100,000 declines in value since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out.
FL home price bonus charts
Among Florida metro areas, these 7 have seen home prices fall the most since their 2022 peak:
Punta Gorda, FL —> -24.5%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL —> -19.1%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL —> -17.0%
Naples-Marco Island, FL —> -11.7%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL —> -8.7%
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL —> -8.4%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL —> -8.4%
As I covered for Fortune in spring 2022, Florida’s particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom would be the key reason for its post-boom downside pricing vulnerability.
Some Florida markets needed some mean reversion—and over the past four years, with much of it occurring in 2024 and 2025, that mean reversion has taken place (see the black line below representing the nationally aggregated housing market).
Fast-forward to August 2026, and much of the froth that accumulated during the Pandemic Housing Boom in those Florida boomtowns has blown off. Froth has pulled back as home prices in many Florida markets have fallen over the past few years while incomes have continued to rise.
Back in Q2 2022, Punta Gorda was 57.3% "overvalued" according to Moody's. Since then, Punta Gorda has undergone a home price correction, and as of Q2 2026 is now 0.03% "undervalued."
Why does receding froth in Florida matter?
In theory, as froth recedes and "overvaluation" comes down, so does downside risk. And that dynamic may already be quietly reshaping the risk picture in parts of the Florida housing market. Consider active inventory. After years of relentless active inventory growth that coincided with many Florida markets moving into full-blown correction-mode, some of the hardest-hit areas are seeing active listings fall on a year-over-year basis—and that’s been happening for months now. Notably, several markets experiencing the steepest inventory declines—Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, Sarasota—are the same ones that have undergone the most material home price corrections. That's not a coincidence. As home prices fall/incomes rise and overvaluation recedes, local fundamentals improve, affordability gradually restores itself relative to incomes, and demand starts to find a footing. That likely explains, at least in part, the mild upticks in existing-home sales beginning to emerge across parts of the state. There's another force at work too. Some sellers, unable to achieve their desired price points, are simply stepping back—delisting their homes or holding off on new listings altogether, while homebuilders in the softest pockets of Florida have pulled back on specs. That's quietly tightening the supply side in some pockets, even without a surge in buyer demand. None of this means downside risk is completely gone from all Florida housing markets. While the intensity of the correction in Florida markets has eased in recent months, there are still patches of Southwest Florida that ResiClub still considers mildly in correction-mode. And if distress levels were to rise and more sellers were forced to capitulate, active inventory could climb again, reopening downside pressure. But for Florida markets where froth has largely blown off and prices have already done much of their correcting, the risk profile looks meaningfully different today than it did in 2022—and that shift deserves attention.
A few of the maps in today’s piece were screenshots from the ResiClub Terminal. Firms that would like a demo of the ResiClub Terminal, should email [email protected]
