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Understanding how the Pandemic Housing Boom and subsequent cyclical cooling period have play out across Florida, as told by 2 charts
For today’s article, ResiClub wanted to put an analysis that helps readers to understand how the post-boom cyclical cooling period is playing out across Florida.
To put the past six years into context, ResiClub broke down how the Pandemic Housing Boom (March 2020 to mid-2022) and the subsequent post-boom cyclical cooling period have impacted home prices across 35 major Florida counties through September 2026. We split the analysis into single-family homes and condos, since Florida's condo market has been notably softer than its single-family market during the post-boom cooling window.
Why this approach? Many of the housing figures that get published are topline numbers: a statewide year-over-year change, or a metro-wide percent decline from peak. We share those frequently too. Those cuts are useful, but on their own they can paint an incomplete picture.
A year-over-year figure only tells you what happened over the past 12 months. It doesn't tell you where prices stand relative to the Pandemic Housing Boom run-up. A peak-to-current decline has the opposite problem. Lee County single-family prices are down 18.3% from their peak, but they're also still up 38.2% since March 2020. By showing both the boom gains that have been blown off and the boom gains that remain in the same bar, the charts capture the full arc of the cycle for each market.
For each county, the charts show how much of its Pandemic Housing Boom gains have been knocked off since prices peaked, and how much of those gains still remain (and in a couple outlier cases, additional gains since 2022).
On the single-family side, 28 of the 35 major Florida counties have seen at least some of their boom gains blown off. But nearly all of them still hold on to most of those gains: Only Charlotte County has erased more than half. Condos have given back far more. In 33 of the 35 major Florida counties, condo prices have blown off some of their boom gains, and in 12 counties, more than half of those gains are gone.
A quick note on the math
Before diving into the ResiClub charts, keep in mind that just because Lee County, FL has seen 30.9 percentage points of its 69.1% Pandemic Housing Boom single-family gains blown off doesn’t mean home prices there have fallen 30.9%. Instead, single-family home prices in Lee County are down -18.3% from their mid-2022 peak. It’s a math quirk: A percentage decline wipes out a bigger share of prior gains than the decline itself suggests.
The math also means that to dig out of the -18.3% decline, single-family home prices in Lee County, FL would need to rise more than just 18.3%.
In dollar terms: A hypothetical Lee County, FL single-family home worth $300,000 in March 2020 would have climbed to about $507,000 at the 2022 peak, a gain of about $207,000. It has since fallen back to about $415,000. That roughly $92,000 drop is just 18% of the home’s peak value, but it’s 45% of what the home gained during the boom. And getting back to $507,000 would take that same $92,000, which works out to more than 18% of today’s lower $415,000 value
Single-family: Southwest Florida rose the most and has since given back the most
Charlotte County, FL has seen the most erosion. Single-family home prices there jumped 70.3% during the boom, but 39.4 percentage points of those gains have since been blown off. That's 56% of Charlotte County's boom-era appreciation, making it the only county among the 35 where single-family prices have erased more than half of their Pandemic Housing Boom gains. Other Gulf Coast counties, including Sarasota County, FL (29.1 percentage points blown off) and Manatee County, FL(24.3 points), aren't far behind.
At the other end of the spectrum, single-family prices in seven counties are now above their mid-2022 levels: Miami-Dade, Leon, Broward, Palm Beach, Alachua, Escambia, and Seminole. Miami-Dade stands out most, with single-family prices up another 18.3 percentage points since the boom ended. In total, Miami-Dade County, FL single-family prices are up 65.1% since March 2020. For comparison, U.S. single-family home prices are up 46.4% since March 2020.
FL condos: A much deeper unwind
Florida's condo market has given back far more. In Lee County, FL condo prices spiked 72.1% between March 2020 and their mid-2022 peak. Since then, condo prices have fallen 24.8%, blowing off 42.7 percentage points of boom gains. That's 59% of Lee County's condo boom appreciation blown off, compared to 45% blown off for its single-family homes. Lee County condo prices are now up just 29.4% since March 2020.
Charlotte County, FL is again the hardest hit. Condo prices there rose 68.4% during the boom, but 59.6 percentage points of those gains have since been blown off—87% of the county's condo boom appreciation. Charlotte County, FL condo prices are now down roughly 35% from their peak and up just 8.7% since March 2020.
In 12 of the 35 counties, condo prices have erased more than half of their Pandemic Housing Boom gains: Charlotte, Pinellas, Duval, Sarasota, Indian River, Hernando, Lee, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pasco, Sumter, and Orange. On the single-family side, only Charlotte County, FL has.
What's driving Florida's post-boom weakness
As ResiClub has closely documented this cycle, Florida’s particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom was the key reason for its post-boom downside pricing vulnerability. While U.S. home prices rose +41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged +51% over the same period—leaving some parts of the state significantly overvalued. Only, it takes a large enough shift in the supply-demand equilibrium for that vulnerability to manifest into falling prices. Of course, after the boom ended, 5 factors came together to create a supply-demand equilibrium shift large enough to reveal some of that downside risk and push certain pockets of Florida into post-Pandemic Housing Boom corrections.
The Pandemic Housing Boom’s migration surge to Florida fizzled out. Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +23K in 2025, compared to +314K in 2022. Without that larger influx of deep-pocketed buyers from up North, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes.
Surfside condo fallout. Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. Following Surfside, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also tightened condo underwriting: stricter reserve requirements, mandatory. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings.
Hurricane Ian spurred a greater SWFL softening. Markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, saw thousands of damaged homes, and the subsequent need for renovations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage, making Ian the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. That event helped create additional softening in SWFL.
Supply elasticity. Unlike many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, Florida has a higher level of homebuilding, build-to-rent, multifamily construction. As that new supply entered the market in the post-Pandemic Housing Boom affordability-strained environment, builders used bigger affordability adjustments—such as mortgage rate buydowns and rental incentives—where needed to move it. That helped cool the Florida resale market further by drawing buyers who might have otherwise purchased existing homes toward new construction. As a result, this put additional upward pressure on Florida’s resale inventory after the Pandemic Housing Boom ended.
Home insurance shocks. In the three years following the boom, the median annual U.S. home insurance premium has jumped around 30%, but Florida homeowners have been hit even harder. The surge in Florida home insurance rates is partly driven by rising replacement costs—home prices and construction costs soared during the boom—and partly by increased hurricane risks and insurance payouts. Florida's sharp rise in insurance costs, combined with one of the biggest home price increases during the Pandemic Housing Boom, has led to one of the biggest housing affordability deteriorations.
Where things stand in Florida heading into 2027
As ResiClub has documented this year, while softness—and even outright weakness—remains in parts of Florida’s housing market, the intensity of the correction and recalibration process there has been waning in early 2026 (relative to the speed of weakening in 2024-2025). Some homebuilders who’ve already made aggressive affordability adjustments, particularly at the higher end of the market, have reported this year that they’ve “found the market” in many of their Florida communities. Falling home prices in pockets of Florida have helped accelerate the blow-off of froth that built up during the Pandemic Housing Boom—a process that’s still ongoing. However, while the intensity of Florida’s correction this year had lost some momentum, the recent run-up in yields could reignite weakening there heading into the 2027 market. We’ll keep an eye on it.
78% of U.S. homebuyers now use AI to help buy a home
According to the Zoodealio-ResiClub Real Estate Agent Survey, conducted in August and September, AI has quickly become part of the home-buying and -selling process.
Among real estate agents surveyed, 78% say their clients have used AI tools to research pricing, listings, or the transaction at least occasionally over the past 12 months, including 39% who say clients have done so very often. Only 6% say their clients never use AI tools.
When clients bring AI-generated information, they most often use it for researching neighborhoods, schools, or comps (53%), followed by interpreting contracts or disclosures (42%). Among real estate agents surveyed, 23% say clients have used it to challenge their pricing or valuation, and 12% say clients have used it to question their commission and fees.
Agents are adopting AI themselves, with 90% saying they use it in their business. The most common use is writing listing descriptions or marketing copy (72%), followed by generating pricing insights or market analysis (49%) and client communication (46%).
Looking ahead, most agents see AI as a tool rather than a threat. Over the next five years, 53% believe AI will increase the value agents provide, while 30% think it will reduce the need for agents, including 8% who expect a significant reduction.
Over the past week, ResiClub (paid tiers) members got these 3 additional housing research articles:
ResiClub is hosting ResiDay 2026 on Friday November 6 in NYC
ResiDay is back for the third straight year.
We’ll look at risks and opportunities across regional housing markets, homebuilding, and BTR.
Some of our top speakers this year include QXO CEO Brad Jacobs and KB Home's new CEO Rob McGibney. Last year, we had 260 attendees—this year we’ll have an even bigger turnout.
